In a new special issue, the Centre's Director finds significant flaws in the document’s logic, clarity, and ambition, and urges the development of an independent German strategic vision.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped Germany’s security environment, amid rising global challenges such as China’s ascent, terrorism, economic vulnerability, climate change, and cyber threats. Growing uncertainty over the United States as a reliable NATO ally further undermines a key pillar of German foreign and security policy. In this context, a clear and coherent National Security Strategy is essential for effective resource allocation and the achievement of national and European defence goals.
The first comprehensive academic review
A new special issue, Integrierte Sicherheit für Deutschland? Die Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, edited by Holger Janusch and Thomas Dörfler, offers the first comprehensive academic analysis of Germany’s inaugural National Security Strategy. The volume explores the strategy’s objectives, key policy areas, and institutional foundations, while offering practical recommendations for improvement.
Henke’s four-step framework for effective grand strategy
In her contribution to the volume, Marina Henke (Centre Director and Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School) critically assesses the 2023 German National Security Strategy, posing the question: Kann Deutschland strategisch denken? (Can Germany think strategically?). Drawing on literature from international relations, political science, and history, she proposes a four-step framework for effective grand strategy: clearly defining goals; identifying and analysing strategic challenges; formulating a coherent logic of action; and aligning appropriate means and measures to address these challenges.
Strategic deficiencies and cultural constraints
Applying this framework, Henke concludes that Germany’s security strategy exhibits significant deficiencies—it lacks strategic logic, presents vague objectives, and shows a disconnect between the identified challenges and the proposed actions. She attributes these shortcomings in part to Germany’s political culture—marked by consensus-seeking and a preference for strategic ambiguity—but also to a deeper structural issue: the absence of a robust intellectual infrastructure capable to produce sound strategic options for the German government. Henke calls for greater investment in strategic studies across academia and research institutions, as well as creating a dedicated office for long-term strategic analysis, similar to the U.S. Office of Net Assessment or France’s Centre d’analyse, de prévision et de stratégie.
Moving towards an independent German strategic vision
Germany, she warns, currently reacts more than it acts—lacking a proactive, self-defined vision of its security future. Advancing the Zeitenwende (turning point) requires not only greater defence spending but also the development of an independent German understanding of strategy.
The full volume is available as open access in Nomos Verlag’s Zeitschrift für Politik and can be accessed here.
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